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This study aims to develop and test multivariable psychosocial prediction models of perceived post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and complex post-traumatic stress disorder (CPTSD) symptoms development among trauma-exposed Ukrainian adults (n = 761) after 1.5 years of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This research was designed as a survey in line with the methodology of “Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis” checklist. The survey included a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics and specifics of trauma exposure, as well as validated self-reported inventories: The International Trauma Questionnaire, Acceptance and Action Questionnaire – version 2, Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale-10 and the Modified BBC Subjective Well-being Scale.

Regression analysis revealed different prediction models for PTSD and CPTSD symptoms, explaining 18.4% and 41.4% of their variance with five and eight predictors, respectively. Four variables were similar in predicting PTSD and CPTSD: war-relatedness of trauma, living with a friend, perceived physical health and regret for the past. War-relatedness of trauma the respondents were exposed to was among the strongest predictors for PTSD and CPTSD severity. However, living with a friend was almost equally strong in mitigating these mental consequences. Regret for past and lowly rated physical health were assessed as relatively weaker but statistically significant predictors in this study.

Upon the original theoretical framework, two psychosocial prediction models were developed for PTSD and CPTSD symptoms in a non-clinical sample of trauma-exposed Ukrainian adults.

This study aims to develop and test a multivariable psychosocial prediction model of subjective well-being in Ukrainian adults (n = 1,248) 1.5 years after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The research design followed the “Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis” checklist. The online survey combined a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics and specifics of living in wartime, as well as validated self-reported inventories: The Modified BBC Subjective Well-being Scale, Acceptance and Action Questionnaire – Version 2 and Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale-10.

The initially developed model was tested through regression analysis, which revealed nine variables as predictors of the subjective well-being scores within the sample, explaining 49.3% of its variance. Among them, the strongest were living with a friend and receiving mental health care systematically. They were almost twice as influential as forced displacement abroad and trauma exposure, which predicted lower well-being, and living with a spouse, which forecasted higher well-being scores. Two resilience subscales – adjustment and restoring and resistance – as predictors of better well-being and perceived unsuccess in life and age as predictors of lower well-being were relatively weaker but statistically significant.

The obtained results support the previous evidence on the essential role of accessible mental health services and social support in times of war, as well as the deteriorative effect of trauma exposure and forcible taking refuge on subjective well-being.